I've started a job hunt in two recessions...in 1992, then again in 2001. Both times, they stunk. There are a lot of indication that we're either heading into a recession or are already in one. While there seems to be a million different indicators, I have felt the following two are leading me to believe that we're heading that way.
Indicator #1: Reduced spending on retail good and increased spending on bargain goods.
Okay, this may be just a guy thing, but recent news indicates that in February, retail spending dropped .06% vs. a .02% gain they were expecting.
To me, when people actively start transferring their spending from big retailers to Kohl's or Aldi on a regular basis, it tells me that people believe that the money is tight and they need to curb spending in various ways. Since I'm normally an Aldi shopper, I see it personally with the amount of increased traffic in the store each time I go. It's almost disconcerting...
Indicator #2: I'm getting a lot of calls from my friends who are getting laid off....
I'm normally an optimist, but in the recent 6-10 weeks, I've been getting a steady stream of calls for help in their job search. In the past, most of my friends find something quickly, but lately, the job market seems to be really tight. That's not good for any of us.
Hopefully my indicators are wrong and that the recent stimulus package will kick start the economy once again. If not, hold on to your seats folks because it's going to be a bumpy ride.
